Distribution Markets paper
Overview
A research paper titled 'Distribution Markets' was published by Paradigm, a crypto investment firm, in December 2024. It introduces a novel form of prediction market designed for questions that yield continuous rather than discrete outcomes, enabling traders to express a full probability distribution over an unbounded range of possible values, rather than selecting from predetermined categories. The illustrative example involves a question about when a specific product will launch, where traditional markets restrict traders to broad options such as 'Q2 2025' or '2026.' The concept is presented alongside Paradigm's other work on market design, forming part of a wider initiative to expand prediction markets beyond binary outcomes.
Within The Counterparty graph, Distribution Markets connects to 2 tracked entities, most strongly to Paradigm Research, Dave White.
Relations
Top connections in The Counterparty knowledge graph (confidence-weighted, 2 of 2 total).
| Relation | Connected entity | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
published_in | Paradigm Research | 85% |
authored | Dave White | 85% |
Sources
Facts in this record were checked against the following. Where a claim is not covered here, the record states only what the graph holds.
Questions on the record
Who published the Distribution Markets paper and when?
Paradigm published the paper in December 2024 at paradigm.xyz.
What problem does it address?
It addresses the limitation that conventional prediction markets only allow participants to express probabilities over discrete outcomes, whereas many real-world questions involve continuous outcomes.